According to the communication between SMM and more than 20 aluminum profile enterprises in the industry, we all agree that July and August have always been the off-season of aluminum profile industry, and this year is the same. Whether the output, order or inventory are more or less affected by this. But why is it weak, when is it going to turn into a profit? Is there any difference in the subdivided industries? What is the most concerned direction of the industry? Through communication with more than 20 experienced market participants in the industry, the author summarizes the following points.
1: Market feedback in June / July: five profile factories reported that although the construction aluminum profiles in Guangdong accounted for a large share of the market, their own output decreased by 20% - 30% in July, and they basically thought that August would be in a flat posture compared with July, and slightly better. Ten enterprises in the northern region also did not reflect optimism. Several small and medium-sized enterprises in Northern Anhui, Hebei and Shandong reported that their output decreased by about 30% - 40%. Two enterprises in East China said that their output decreased due to the weakening of downstream demand, and two of them reflected that their orders decreased by about 1 / 4. However, the four enterprises in Sichuan and Fujian reflect that although the two markets have been slightly affected, they are basically stable, and there is no significant difference in monthly data. After being affected by the change of national subsidy policy and India's double anti policy, yueyueyuefu products have hardly recovered, and there is no sign of improvement in early August. Many enterprises said that the cost of photovoltaic products is high and the payment is slow, which is gradually reducing this business scope. In terms of automobile aluminum profile, four enterprises said that the output in June / July was basically the same as the order, and slightly weak in the early July, but there was a gradually better trend from the late July to the early August, and the orders gradually increased, and the output of one company was nearly full. In terms of rail aluminum, an enterprise said that this market has been relatively stable in recent two years, and the order performance has been stable in the past three months.
2: Why is the off season weak? Reduction of aluminum profile production: ① the demand of downstream enterprises decreased. Nowadays, most enterprises in the industry, considering the instability of orders, adopt the mode of production to order more or less, so the demand decreases and the output naturally decreases. ② There will be some hidden dangers in the long-term work of the factory machines in the high-temperature environment. ③ Extrusion workers work in the workshop environment is not perfect, workers will take short-term high temperature leave. Lower demand: ① construction industry: there are many high temperatures in summer this year. As of August 2, the central meteorological station has issued a high temperature warning for 20 consecutive days. Construction workers have reduced working hours. In addition, the sudden rainstorm weather in many places has affected the safety of real estate construction and slowed down the construction progress in many places. In addition, this year, a number of real estate construction accidents caused the attention of real estate enterprises, shutdown maintenance, resulting in the construction industry demand weakening. ② Automobile industry: July / August is the off-season of automobile market consumption. Because in the middle of the year, there is a certain pressure on enterprise residents' capital settlement, and consumption income is less diverted to the car market. In addition, there are a lot of old car maintenance in summer, and the demand for old car parts has squeezed out a part of new car demand.
3: The industry's most concerned development direction: in short, new products and new markets. The author and a number of enterprises exchange, learned that the construction industry in the near future aluminum template products become a short-term bright spot, because of the short construction cycle, lower cost than steel formwork, wide use and large bearing capacity, favored by the building materials industry. In addition, the rapid development trend of new energy vehicles in recent years has put forward new requirements and prospects for the demand of aluminum alloy profiles. In the body, chassis and battery shell of new energy vehicles, a variety of high and medium end aluminum alloy profiles and aluminum magnesium alloy profiles are used more frequently. Many enterprises have shown their interest. However, due to the uncertainty in mass production and high requirements for manufacturing process, there are still some problems in mass production, Therefore, although the market is attractive, there is still a wait-and-see mood.
4: What is the prospect of aluminum profile? The overall development of September / October is mainly due to favorable factors, which will support the rise of demand. With more holidays in October, the opening rate and sales volume of real estate will increase, resulting in a large increase in the demand for aluminum profiles. In particular, the three Canton Fair in Guangdong every autumn will drive the production and sales volume of the local aluminum profile market to rise sharply. According to the law of "gold 9, silver 10", car manufacturers often come into the market in September and October to stimulate sales of new cars, so the demand for aluminum profiles will increase greatly. As August has entered and the peak season of the auto market is not far away, some automobile profile enterprises said that the downstream demand has turned better, and the orders in early August performed well. However, it should be noted that there are still negative factors in the market. In order to firmly do a good job in the three-year action plan of "blue sky defense war", the central government is carrying out many activities of "looking back" on environmental protection supervision. Due to the pollution of waste water and acid-base sand during the production and processing of profiles, a large-scale aluminum enterprise in Jiangsu Province has purchased more than 30 million equipment to treat waste water and waste residue. However, small and medium-sized enterprises are bound to be affected by different levels of capital cost. A Hebei enterprise said that the output will be reduced by half after the environmental protection directive is issued. Therefore, it is necessary to be vigilant against the impact of the action plan on aluminum profile enterprises influence.
[reprinted from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network]
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